The Shot Not Taken

There are other things going on in the world than "two insane nitwits waving nuclear weapons," and Phil Hands takes note of the promises of Foxxcon in Wisconsin.

Which, like Jack and the Beanstalk and so much more, relies on people believing things they really ought not to. Jack emerged from the story a hero, but he was truly a fool to have believed the story in the first place. Walker and Trump are also relying on stumbling into victory under the guise of having made a clever deal.

When this deal was first announced, a CNN panel admitted that, while they'd been hard on Trump in general, they had to concede that this was pretty good, which it is, if it works out, though it's not clear how much Trump had to do with it.

Such massive plans don't come about in six months, and Trump does have a tendency to be like the rooster who takes credit for the sunrise, but, yes, let's be fair: It's possible that Foxconn began planning this in the months leading up to the election, with the intent of only moving forward if Americans elected someone willing to give away the ranch, and then finalized their decision in November when the needed results were announced.

Still, it's kind of fun to remember how the Republicans credited every improvement over eight years to groundwork laid by Bush, not policies introduced by Obama, and now have a very different view of how such things work.

It's also important to bear in mind that there is many a slip twixt cup and lip, particularly with this company, and to wait until some shovels hit the earth and then wait a little more until we see how many jobs the project actually generates, assuming it does come about at all. 

Another important side of all this is to keep an eye on how much of Wisconsin's generous investment in the idea is upfront money as opposed to deferred taxes and suchlike.

I've seen and heard some cynical discussion of what it is going to "cost" Wisconsin taxpayers, and a lot of that supposed cost is in tax money not generated rather than money out of pocket.

"Tax money not generated" isn't real. It's like moaning over the millions you didn't make because you didn't buy a lottery ticket.

That is, it's not like Foxconn is going to build the factory and hire the people whether or not they get the incentives. No incentives, no factory.

And so a lot of the cost is mythical, at least beyond what the land currently generates in taxes, and whatever Wisconsin currently spends supporting out of work people who will get jobs in this plant. Which latter number assumes that the factory will hire only currently unemployed Wisconsin residents.

Great stuff, if it happens.

But the anticipation recalls a fable rather than a fairy tale: The one about the girl going to market balancing a pail of milk on her head.

A little less "We're in the money!" and a little more "Let's see how it goes" might be in order, but when did anybody ever call a news conference to say "Let's see how it goes"?

 

Which could almost be a Juxtaposition with this:

Crowden Satz made me chuckle with this "vain regret" cartoon, which has a nice Twilight Zone vibe, a reverse of the classic episode in which a gambler finds himself in an afterworld in which he wins every bet, only to slowly realize that always winning sucks and he's in Hell.

Wayne Gretzky famously said that you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take, and fear of failure is something great athletes manage to channel into counterbalancing action.

You won't take any shots at all if you wait for the perfect moment, and one of the lessons of sports is to learn what you can from your misses, but then put them behind you and keep your head in the here-and-now.  

The joke being that if you keep replaying all those missed opportunities in your head, you don't have to wait to die before you can find yourself in Hell.

Not only can you put yourself into a state of perpetual despair and humiliation, but you can paralyze yourself into making more and more footage to add to the reel. 

So, going back to Phil Hands' cartoon, I think preparing a package of incentives for Foxconn is perfectly appropriate, as long as you don't -- ahem -- allow the fox to con you into putting anything up front.

And you don't brag too much about it until it actually begins to happen.

Though we all like to talk about the things we're gonna do someday, don't we?

 

Juxtaposition of the Day

(Dan Wasserman)

(Matt Davies)

Interesting difference between these two cartoons: Wasserman suggests that Tillerson is simply providing a comforting fairy tale to cover for the incompetent leader, while Davies suggests that he is, in fact, providing the actual direction while Trump cheerfully believes himself the captain.

I'd prefer to believe Davies, but, well, that might turn out to be the fairy tale. We'll see.

Though Davies gets the Best Pun Award for casting Tillerson as a tillerman. Give that man some tea, and bring steak for the sun and wine for the woman who made the rain come.

Though that happy day itself may have to wait a bit.

 

Meanwhile, in other pop culture references

Mike Luckovich notes that Trump is a man with few regrets, and I think it's a safe bet that he doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about all the things he might have done better.

This is not Gretzky, waving aside his missed shots in order to celebrate goals made, nor is it Edith Piaf, dismissing her mistakes as immaterial, necessary steps towards the life she has achieved.

No, it's this:

Hey, wait a minute ...

Nah. Never mind.

 

Anyway, if you're going to have vain regets ...

They should swing.

Comments

[Paul Berge]

Hands hits the nail on the head concerning all that Walker (and Trump) are willing to give away to Foxxcon. Walker has promised that in addition to a good long tax holiday, Foxxcon won't have to worry about any pesky environmental regulations.
The proposed Foxxcon plant (almost literally in my own back yard), despite being only 10 miles from Lake Michigan, is in the Mississippi River watershed, but will need to use Lake Michigan water. That will require unanimous approval from all the state and provincial governments in the Great Lakes Compact -- out of Walker and Trump's control. That Compact only months ago approved diverting Lake Michigan water to Waukesha County in Wisconsin, so we'll see how receptive they are to a second waiver request already.

[Mike Peterson]

I wonder how much Wisconsin's environmental regulations exceed federal regs? I could see a lawsuit coming if Walker tries to override the feds or even if the feds try to cancel them.

And then, assuming everyone decides Lake Michigan water should be diverted, who builds that pipeline? That would certainly be a case where the money was not imaginary, and, if it's approved only for the FoxComm plant, it would be like sidewalks and sewerage -- a cost of development to be borne by the developer. Or maybe the target of yet another lawsuit.

What I can say with certainty is that companies hoping to locate in communities do not much like becoming parties to lawsuits.

[mark johnson]

Also speaking from the backyard of this proposal( Kenosha) , I am concerned with waiving environmental regulations not only for this specific project but for the next ones. Are we creating precedent that would be hard to live with?
There is a rush to move forward but the details need the light of day, of reasoned analysis. A recent report suggests a 25 year period for the State to break even, longer with less favorable conditions. If this does indeed make good economic sense, great.We all win. What we are afraid of though is being sacrificed to political ambition

[Brent]

I keep hearing on the news how it's Kim Jung Un that's the one that's not understanding things... that he comes from a culture of bluster and so doesn't get that the US might be serious. But that really underestimates him... I'm positive he completely understands, he's got a tolitarian government held up in part by the ongoing war with the US it presents to its people. And Trump is just so incredibly trollable (really, it's almost not fun as he just falls right over). It's not like the US can really do anything in response... Seoul is easily within reach of conventional artillery, and China has said if the US moves first, they'll side with North Korea.

It's really Trump that doesn't understand things... it's quite clear that he needs a lesson in pragmatics and speech actions. He, and the inner circle around him, don't seem to understand that statements by the POTUS are different. They can keep maintaining that they aren't... but all that does is erode the power of the POTUS. Eventually, people are just going to start going over the POTUS's head and deal with his underlings directly to save time and frustration.

[Mike Peterson]

Not sure we're far apart -- Kim is working within his culture. I think he's nuts, but not in the sense of incompetence. Not "25th Amendment nuts." But I do think he and Ahmadinijad, for instance, say things more for domestic consumption than for global audiences, and that it's like stepping in on a domestic squabble -- you don't get it and need to MYOB.

As for Trump, he's not teachable. Unfortunately, I'm not sure he's "25th Amendment nuts" either. But I do think people are already working with others to get around him. On the other hand, his incompetence is doing serious damage to our institutions -- I linked to this the other day but it's scary as hell -- https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/07/department-of-energy-risks-michael-lewis